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Brent Harris Elliott Wave
Futures Market
Advisory Service
Daily Service Sample Article
(12/2/05)
ELLIOTT AG PAGE
SOYBEANS: [No Change] While a 'timing'
buy-signal could be triggered, IF the Jan soybeans do NOT turn back down on
Thurs (Dec 1), the pattern from the Nov 14 peak still indicates that a
[5]th-wave decline has NOT bottomed, yet. However, IF the Jan beans can stage
one more decline to new sell-off lows, preferably within the next several days,
then it will be possible to label a (5)-wave/[5]th-wave pattern down.
Consequently, IF prices happen to drop to my next major, long-term support area;
at 5.32-5.22 (5.28 *best), we’ll look to take profits on our short position.
This key support level incorporates the 80.9%-90.9%-retracement combination from
the 1999 and 2005 lows, depreciations of 50%-and 30.9%-from the 2004 and 2005
highs, as well as a [5]th-wave decline that is 38.2%-the length of
waves-[1]-thru-[3], i.e., minus the Nov 14/wave-[4] peak. Overall, however,
because the longer-term pattern now strongly indicates that prices will AT LEAST
drop to the 5.00 ½-4.96 level BEFORE a major rally is a reasonable bet, a play
on the long-side MAY NOT be a worthwhile strategy, i.e., from the 5.32-5.22
level. Near-term support for the Jan beans is at 5.48-5.43 and 5.37-5.36 1/4,
with the key resistance now at 5.63-5.67 ½ max?
CORN: Again, given that the nearby Dec
corn did “break” key support at the 1.91 ½-1.88 3/4 level, it obviously looks
like LOWER projections have been confirmed. Note, that the next lower area of
good support is now at the 90.9%-retracement projection from the 1987-1996 Bull
cycle, or 1.79 ½. However, because the long-range pattern continues to call for
an eventual decline to AT LEAST BELOW the 2000 bottom (-1.74), a drop to the
next lower support cluster at 1.71 ½-1.67 ½ is certainly possible. At any rate,
as long as the MAXIMUM RESISTANCE at 1.97-1.99 1/4 holds in the Dec contract, or
about 2.11 ½-2.13 3/4 basis Mar corn, we’ll hold short. The closest resistance,
however, is now at 1.90-1.90 ½ and 1.92 3/4-1.95 1/4 Dec, and about 2.04
½-2.05/2.07 1/4-2.09 3/4 in the March contract.
WHEAT: Although the Dec wheat did close
back ABOVE the 3.03 1/4-2.99 ½ support level Wed (Nov 30), my projection
analysis continues to favor a near-
term drop to AT LEAST the 2.88-2.84 level. However, because the far more
significant long-term support numbers are actually at the 2.72 ½-2.65 level, the
most likely scenario is that primary wave-[1], or CYCLE-WAVE-I will achieve this
area, BEFORE a sharp bounce emerges. This support zone yields the
76.4%-retracement projection from the 1999 low, the THRUST-WAVE projection from
the recently completed TRIANGLE formation, and depreciations of 38.2%, 27.25%
and 23.6% from the last 3-significant highs. At any rate, in the event a larger,
1-week plus rally does occur BEFORE the 2.72 ½ level is reached, we’ll certainly
be looking to add to our short-position. Resistance for the Dec wheat is now at
3.08 3/4-3.11 ½, 3.16-3.17 and 3.20 ½-3.23 1/4 max!, with the equivalent
resistance for the Mar contract at 3.25 ½-3.28 1/4, 3.32 3/4-3.33 3/4 and 3.37
1/4-3.40 max!
COTTON: Since the overall pattern in cotton continues to indicate that the
nearby futures contract is headed for the 42.40-41.55 level, we’d obviously like
to sell any decent rallies that may develop...BEFORE prices drop too much
farther. To that end, IF the nearby Dec contract can “spike-up” to big
resistance in the 51.90-52.45 range BEFORE the Dec 7 expiration, we’ll go ahead
and sell the Mar futures. The equivalent resistance for Mar cotton is at about
54.75-to-55.75. Interim support for cotton is at 46.25-45.69 basis Dec, or about
50.20-49.82 in the Mar contract.
HOGS: Since the last drop in the nearby
Dec hogs hold well-above the key 59.65-58.90 long-term support level, the
overall pattern continues to call for a FINAL, wave-(c) advance to AT LEAST the
68.05-68.70 level basis the nearby contract. Given that the soon-to-be nearby
Feb hogs are already at the 68.05-68.70 level, however, it looks like the
equivalent resistance numbers here will be at EITHER 70.85-71.25, or
73.65-73.77. Traders should be aware, however, that due to the fact (?) that the
Nov 21 low in the Dec hogs (60.62) did NOT occur at ANY of my key support
numbers, there is still a chance that prices will spike-back-down to the
59.65-58.90 level. Near-term support for Dec hogs is at 61.60-61.27, with the
resistance at 63.52-63.92, 64.60-64.67 and 65.45-65.92.
ELLIOTT WAVE FUTURES MONITOR
STOCKS: Since a completed, (9)-wave
pattern-up can now be effectively labeled off the Oct low in BOTH the Dow Jones
Industrials AND the Dec S&P, I can now make a pretty strong argument for the
completion of a MUCH LARGER, CYCLE-WAVE-
B advance from the 2002 lows. In which case, given that a HUGE, CYCLE-WAVE-C
decline could be underway, the MOST BEARISH position since 2000 could be at
hand. So, as long as the Dec S&P does NOT trade back ABOVE the key 1265.90-
1269.80 resistance area (by much), we’ll stay short. This area yields the
61.8%-retracement projection from the 2000 top, AND a 65.45%-appreciation from
the 2002 bottom. Pivotal support for the Dec S&P is now at 1250.40-1249.00,
1245.00-1241.90, 1236.30-1234.50 and 1228.50-1227.50.
COFFEE: [No Change] In light of Wed
penetration of the key 99.20-98.30 support level in March coffee, we have
obviously confirmed that a LARGER correction from the Nov top is still in
progress. However, because the long-
range pattern still looks BULLISH, AND I can NOT even make a case for a
completed rally off the Sept bottom (yet), I suspect that a significant “upturn”
will begin within the next several days. Consequently, once the March coffee
completes a 5-wave/(c)-wave decline from last weeks 104.25 high, we’ll look to
re-enter the long-side. The next area of key support for the March coffee is now
at 95.25-to-93.25. This level yields the 50%-76.4%-retracement combination from
the 2001 and 2005 lows, a 34.55%-depreciation from the 2005 top AND the
76.4%-times wave-(a) projection. By the way, the 1 X 1 daily GANN angle from the
Sept low is now also at 95.10. Near-term resistance is at 98.55-98.90, 100.30
and 101.20-101.45.
COCOA: If the March cocoa can now stage
one more “spike-up” to new rally highs (+1446), I will be able to make a case
for a completed, a-b-c rally off the Nov 14 bottom. Thus, if prices can also
achieve my best resistance cluster at 1461-to-1487, aggressive traders can
LIGHTLY SELL. This area yields the 14.58%-30.9%-retracement combination from the
2003 and 2005 continuation chart highs, as well as a 23.6%-retracement from the
contract high in March futures. The precise, short-to-intermediate-term pattern
is far from certain, however, so ONLY High Risk Traders ought to sell...for now.
Note, that prices could EXTEND to the next higher resistance cluster, at
1513-1519. Near-term support is at 1401-1389.
OJ: Since the pullback from the Nov 8 peak
in OJ (124.90 March) has now exceeded the greatest duration of any correction
since the Aug bottom, it is quite possible that a MAJOR SELL-SIGNAL has been
triggered. If the Aug-Nov rally has indeed completed wave-[c], of the initial
CYCLE-WAVE-A advance (from the 2004 low of 54.20), then the biggest setback in
18-months is underway. However, because it is awfully, RISKY to sell an up
trending market, especially as we head into the “freeze season”, ONLY HRT should
play the short-side. Near-term resistance for the Jan OJ is at 120.20-121.10,
with the support at 118.05-117.60, 115.50-113.80, 111.15-109.80 and
107.95-106.40.
NEW TRADES AND OPEN POSITIONS 12/02/05
SOYBEANS: Traders/Hedgers (33%) keep the
stop on short Jan beans at 5.68 3/4 (+$1,500).
CORN: Traders/Hedgers (50%) keep the stop
on short Dec corn at 2.00 1/4 (+$7,012).
WHEAT: Traders/Hedgers (50%) keep the stop
on short Dec wheat at 3.24 1/4 (+$1,912).
COTTON: Stand-aside Friday.
STOCKS: Keep the stop on short Dec e-mini
S&P at 1271.25 (-$263).
COFFEE: High Risk Traders (HRT) can buy
the March coffee at 95.15, using a stop at 91.85.
COCOA: HRT sold March cocoa at 1461
(-$40). Use a stop at 1526.
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